Results

From what I've read in the Catalan and the national press, both sides appear to be trying to portray the results of yesterday's referenda as a vindication of their position. What it has come down to is whether you put more emphasis on the result itself or the rate of participation.

The headline figures show the referenda to have been a great victory for those seeking independence for Catalonia, with a resounding 90% of those who went to the polls voting in favour of independence. Following this success, some political figures are arguing that the government should now allow a real referendum to take place across the whole of Catalonia.

Those on the opposition, however, have seized on the rate of participation. The proclaimed target of the organisers was a rate of 40%, but in the end only 27% of those eligible to vote bothered to do so. The Partido Popular (a conservative party that, although one of the two main parties nationally, enjoys little support in Catalonia) seized on these figures as proof that the referenda had "failed" and declared that "good sense" had triumphed. A spokesperon of the ruling Catalan Socialist Party said that it had been a "stragetic error" on the part of the nationalists, and had proved that few people supported independence.

So who is right? It is probably fair to say that the answer lies somewhere between the two. The rate of participation is certainly lower than had been hoped for, but a few things should be kept in mind:

1) This was an unofficial referendum, which was in no way binding. Thus, a lot of people will have decided that it was not worth the effort to vote.

2) The voting was organised by volunteers and lacked the resources and organisational structures that would be behind any official referendum.

3) People who are undecided or would have voted "no" are more likely to have stayed at home, since it is a non-binding vote and opponents may have wished to avoid legitimising it. This explains some of why more people didn't vote.

Of course, this last point also means that in a real vote the percentage of people supporting independence would be much less than 90%. Given the nature of the vote, howver, the rate of participation isn't bad at all. And as 27% of the people in these areas voted and 90% of them voted yes, it seems difficult to accept the line from the PSC spokesperson that nationalists are few in number. Even if they are currently a minority, they are a sizeable one.

(Incidently, in the town were I work there was a participation rate of 41%, with 98% voting in favour of independence.)

Voting Begins in Independence Referenda

The BBC has an interesting article that gives some good background information on today's consultations.

The first vote actually took place yesterday, in a tiny village called Sant Jaume de Frontanyà. It has 24 inhabitants, of which 21 were eligible to vote yesterday. 19 voted in favour of independence whereas only one person voted against.

Barcelona and Girona are both set to have similar consultations in April next year.

Catalanisme and Referenda

This is a pretty good time to bring up the subject of Catalanisme (that is to say, Catalan nationalism), as this Sunday there will be referenda on the question of independence in 167 different municipalities. As it would be illegal under the Spanish constitution for such consultations to be organised by a public body, they are being run by independent groups and individuals.

The first consultation on independence took place this year on the 13th September, in a small Catalan town called Arenys de Munt. The question put to voters was: “Do you agree with Catalonia becoming an independent, democratic and social State of law, integrated in the European Union?”. With a participation rate of 41% of those eligible to vote, the result was a resounding 96% in favour of independence. In the wake of this, referendums are now being planned all over Catalonia (Barcelona, and also the town where I am living, are apparently set to have one next year). Less happily, there were also some demonstrations by far-right Spanish nationalists groups with links back to the Falange movement, complete with symbols of the Franco dictatorship and fascist salutes.

Of course, it’s worth keeping in mind that this was a single vote in a small town (the total ballots cast only numbered 2,671), and the fact that it was a non-binding and unofficial referendum probably means that people who were pro-independence were more likely to take the time and effort to participate than people who were either apathetic or against independence. So this raises the question of how representative of Catalan opinion as a whole the result from Arenys de Munt was.

An opinion poll published in the Spanish-language Catalan newspaper La Vanguardia suggests that it is not particularly representative. According to the results, 35% of Catalans would vote “yes” in a referendum on independence, while 46% would vote “no” – although, interestingly, 53% of Catalans are in favour of these referenda taking place, as opposed to 39% against. Of the two largest political parties in Catalonia, neither is fully in favour of independence. Convergència i Unió, although a Catalan nationalist party, is deliberately vague on the matter so as to win the support of people who do not want full independence, and the PSC (Catalan Socialist Party, linked to the nationally governing PSOE of President Zapatero) is not in favour of independence. The ERC (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya) are strongly in favour of independence, but are the third party in Catalan politics and are currently part of the governing coalition with the PSC and the ICV.

So why is Catalonia so divided? There are various factors, but amongst the most important are factors such as language, national identity and immigration. Without wishing to generalise too much (there are, for example, Catalan nationalists who do not speak any Catalan), people who live in rural areas and speak almost exclusively in Catalan are more likely to support independence, whereas people who live in Barcelona and the cities around it and only speak Spanish (many of whom come from families that moved to Catalonia from other parts of Spain in search of work) are less likely to be pro-independence. The Catalan language and a sense of Catalan national identity are strongly linked, and the poll from the La Vanguardia suggests that whereas 80% of those who only feel Catalan and 60% of those who feel more Catalan than Spanish would support independence, 56% of those who feel as Catalan as Spanish and 70% who feel more or exclusively Spanish would vote against. Part of the reason that many in Barcelona and nearby urban areas are not Catalan-speaking and don’t self-identity as Catalan in nationality is due to the aforementioned waves of immigration from outside of Catalonia, and the determined efforts of General Franco to wipe out the Catalan language and identity. As immigration is usually to big cities and it is far harder to impose authoritarian measures in the remote countryside, this has left rural areas of Catalonia more strongly pro-independence.

Thirty-four of the referendums this Sunday are taking place in the comarca of Osona, which includes Prats de Lluçanès (where my school is). I have talked to quite a few people about this, and almost everyone I have asked has said they are in favour of an independent Catalonia. Osona is a very rural area, and Catalan is easily the most dominant language, and I am fairly sure that the overall result on Sunday will be a “yes” to independence. The really fascinating referendum will be when one is held in Barcelona. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how these referendums affect the debate about Catalan independence and, indeed, whether they have an effect on the level of support for it.

Barcelona!

This weekend I spent my 21st birthday in Barcelona with my parents, and I finally got to see the Magic Fountain in action. We were treated to a twenty-minute show of light and music, which finished with Freddie Mercury's "Barcelona". I filmed it on my camera, and have now uploaded it to YouTube. Enjoy!