Results

From what I've read in the Catalan and the national press, both sides appear to be trying to portray the results of yesterday's referenda as a vindication of their position. What it has come down to is whether you put more emphasis on the result itself or the rate of participation.

The headline figures show the referenda to have been a great victory for those seeking independence for Catalonia, with a resounding 90% of those who went to the polls voting in favour of independence. Following this success, some political figures are arguing that the government should now allow a real referendum to take place across the whole of Catalonia.

Those on the opposition, however, have seized on the rate of participation. The proclaimed target of the organisers was a rate of 40%, but in the end only 27% of those eligible to vote bothered to do so. The Partido Popular (a conservative party that, although one of the two main parties nationally, enjoys little support in Catalonia) seized on these figures as proof that the referenda had "failed" and declared that "good sense" had triumphed. A spokesperon of the ruling Catalan Socialist Party said that it had been a "stragetic error" on the part of the nationalists, and had proved that few people supported independence.

So who is right? It is probably fair to say that the answer lies somewhere between the two. The rate of participation is certainly lower than had been hoped for, but a few things should be kept in mind:

1) This was an unofficial referendum, which was in no way binding. Thus, a lot of people will have decided that it was not worth the effort to vote.

2) The voting was organised by volunteers and lacked the resources and organisational structures that would be behind any official referendum.

3) People who are undecided or would have voted "no" are more likely to have stayed at home, since it is a non-binding vote and opponents may have wished to avoid legitimising it. This explains some of why more people didn't vote.

Of course, this last point also means that in a real vote the percentage of people supporting independence would be much less than 90%. Given the nature of the vote, howver, the rate of participation isn't bad at all. And as 27% of the people in these areas voted and 90% of them voted yes, it seems difficult to accept the line from the PSC spokesperson that nationalists are few in number. Even if they are currently a minority, they are a sizeable one.

(Incidently, in the town were I work there was a participation rate of 41%, with 98% voting in favour of independence.)